Gaia-X - Chronicle of a Failure Foretold

Six years ago, Gaia-X was unveiled with the promise of a federated European cloud infrastructure, a beacon of digital sovereignty built upon European values. Today, that promise rings hollow. The initiative, once a symbol of hope, has become mired in bureaucratic complexities, internal disagreements, and a fundamental misunderstanding of the very ecosystem it sought to foster. The recent liquidation of Agdatahub, a French company and "Day-1 Member" of Gaia-X, is not an isolated incident. It's the illustration of a deeper malaise: Gaia-X, in its current form, is not only failing to deliver on its objectives but is actively hindering the development of a truly sovereign European cloud.

The initial vision was undeniably compelling: a decentralized network of cloud services, adhering to European standards of data protection, transparency, and interoperability. This "Airbus of the Cloud" was to be a direct challenge to the dominance of US and Chinese hyperscalers, offering an alternative rooted in open standards and open-source software. Yet, as former Gaia-X CEO Francesco Bonfiglio admitted, the project was perhaps "too ambitious," attempting to be all things to all people. The result, as Nextcloud's Frank Karlitschek described it in 2024, is a "paper monster," a bureaucratic labyrinth that has produced countless documents but few tangible results.

One of the most glaring flaws in Gaia-X's approach was its inclusivity policy, which welcomed the very hyperscalers it was meant to counter. While proponents argued for collaboration, critics saw it as a strategic blunder, a "Trojan horse" allowing these tech giants to shape the project to their advantage. Karlitschek's concerns about a perceived "hijacking" by hyperscalers, achieved through "flooding it with documents and regulations," appear increasingly prescient. The inclusion of these companies, with their fundamentally different business models and interests, has diluted the project's focus and undermined its core principles.

Furthermore, Gaia-X has prioritized abstract concepts and compliance frameworks over concrete implementations. As Bonfiglio pointed out, the project has failed to create functional data spaces or address the fundamental issue of trust in European cloud infrastructure. The result, as he highlighted, is a dramatic decline in the European cloud market share, a loss of three-quarters in just three years. This is not a theoretical problem; it has real-world consequences. The failure of Agdatahub, a company that embodied Gaia-X's supposed values and sought to create a secure platform for agricultural data, demonstrates the stark reality: Gaia-X membership and alignment with its principles offer no guarantee of success, no protection from market forces, and no support for struggling European SMEs.

The French government's "Cloud de Confiance" strategy has only exacerbated the situation. By allowing French companies to resell US cloud technologies under a "trusted" label, the government has created a false sense of sovereignty while further entrenching dependence on foreign tech giants. As Jean-Paul Smets, CEO of Rapid.Space, poignantly stated, "the State privatizes Azure, eh... Microsoft privatizes the State." This "trusted cloud" approach, lacking SecNumCloud certification for many of its proponents, effectively undermines genuinely independent European alternatives, especially those based on open source.

The liquidation of Agdatahub, despite its "Day-1 Member" status and its 4.8 million euros in funding, reveals the profound inadequacy of the current approach. It demonstrates that Gaia-X, in its current form, is not supporting the very companies it was meant to champion. This is not simply a market failure; it is a failure of strategy, a failure of vision, and, ultimately, a failure of political will.

It is time for a radical rethink. Europe cannot afford to continue down this path of bureaucratic inertia and misplaced priorities. We must abandon the illusion of achieving "sovereignty by association" with the very entities that threaten it. Instead, we must embrace a truly European approach, one rooted in the principles of open source, driven by a vibrant ecosystem of SMEs, and supported by a clear and decisive industrial policy.

This requires a fundamental shift in perspective. Open source must be recognized not just as a technological choice but as a strategic imperative. As APELL, CNLL, OSBA and other organisations have consistently argued, open source is the only way to ensure transparency, auditability, and control over the software that underpins our digital infrastructure. It is the only way to guarantee that European data is subject to European laws and values, and not to the extraterritorial reach of foreign powers, as highlighted by the Dutch government report's findings on the US CLOUD Act.

We must move beyond the "talk over substance" that has characterized Gaia-X. We need concrete actions, not abstract frameworks. This means:

1. Prioritizing Open Source in Public Procurement: Public procurement must become a strategic tool for fostering a European open source ecosystem. The "Public Money, Public Code" principle must be rigorously applied, making open source the default choice for all publicly funded software projects. We need to adopt an approach similar to Germany’s, where OSS is now a priority. This also means taking a page out of the 2014 Open Source Monitor, and actively considering open source adoption as a strategic tool for digital transformation in government.
2. Investing in Open Source SMEs: We must create a level playing field for European open source SMEs, ensuring they have access to funding, public contracts, and the necessary support to compete with the hyperscalers. This includes establishing a "European Small Business Act" that reserves a portion of public procurement for SMEs and promoting open source solutions through platforms like the "Open Source Observatory" suggested in the 2020 EU Open Source strategy.
3. Building a Sovereign Cloud Stack: We must invest in and promote initiatives like the Sovereign Cloud Stack (SCS) that offer genuinely open, interoperable, and vendor-independent cloud infrastructure and value-added services. This is not about creating a monolithic "European cloud" but fostering a federated ecosystem of diverse providers, all adhering to open standards and European values.
4. Rethinking Gaia-X or Moving Beyond It: The European Commission must either fundamentally reform Gaia-X, removing the influence of hyperscalers and refocusing it on truly European solutions, or abandon it altogether in favor of a new initiative that is designed from the ground up to support a decentralized, open-source-based European cloud ecosystem. The Next Generation Internet (NGI) initiative, with its focus on funding smaller, innovative projects and its emphasis on open source principles, could serve as a model. NGI's success in supporting over 1000 projects with a modest budget demonstrates the effectiveness of a more targeted, bottom-up approach.
5. Educating and Empowering Citizens: Digital sovereignty is not just a matter for governments and businesses. It requires educating citizens about the importance of open source, data protection, and the risks of relying on proprietary platforms. It means fostering a culture of digital literacy that empowers individuals to make informed choices about the technologies they use. We must make OSS a core component of education and training at all levels.

The multiple failures of the Gaia-X initiative demonstrate that Digital sovereignty cannot be achieved through superficial measures or by simply rebranding foreign technologies. It requires a fundamental shift in mindset, a recognition that open source is not just a cheaper alternative but a strategic necessity. It demands a bold, long-term vision for a European digital ecosystem that is truly independent, resilient, and aligned with our values.

Europe has the talent, the innovation, and the resources to build this future. What we need now is the political will to break free from the gravitational pull of the extra-European hyperscalers and chart our own course. The time for half-measures and compromises is over. Europe can be a digital leader or a digital colony -- the choice, and the urgency, could not be clearer. We must choose to build, not to surrender.

Update (2025/02/07)

From this article published today:

As early as spring 2021, doubts began to arise about the success of Gaia-X because many companies and even German authorities prefer to rely on established cloud providers – despite all the concerns about digital sovereignty and a possible data outflow to the American IT giants. In November 2021, the French consortium founding member Scaleway was the first to announce its withdrawal – at the Gaia-X summit in Milan, of all places, which was held with a lot of marketing hype. Even then, members were complaining about too much ‘bullshit bingo’ and bureaucracy.
For Frank Karlitschek, the decline began with the founding of the association in Belgium: ‘At that time, politics withdrew from the project – and from then on, Gaia-X was just an industry consortium without a mission,’ says the Nextcloud CEO.