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Predictions for 2025: Open Source and Digital Sovereignty in Europe

2025-01-15

Open Source and Digital Sovereignty: 2025 - Navigating Turbulent Times Under a New Trump Era

As we embark on 2025, the European digital ecosystem appears to find itself at a critical juncture. The momentum built around digital sovereignty and FOSS adoption in recent years (2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020) faces new challenges and uncertainties, particularly with the re-election of Donald Trump as US President. The evolving geopolitical landscape, coupled with internal EU policy shifts and the implementation of the Cyber Resilience Act (CRA), will make this a defining year for Europe's digital future.

The Trump Effect: A Return to Tech Nationalism and its Implications for Europe

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has immediately sent ripples across the Atlantic, casting a long shadow over EU-US tech relations. His administration's first term was marked a nationalist approach to technology, characterized by trade disputes, heightened scrutiny of foreign tech companies, and a push for onshoring critical digital infrastructure. His re-election already poses significant challenges to Europe's digital sovereignty ambitions.

We can anticipate the following from a second Trump presidency:

  • Increased Pressure on European Allies: The Trump administration will likely pressure European countries to limit their reliance on Chinese technology, particularly in areas like 5G and cloud computing, while simultaneously pushing for greater adoption of US-based solutions. This could lead to difficult choices for European governments, caught between security concerns, a desire to foster their own tech industries, and the pressure to align with US interests. The "Cloud de Confiance" strategy in France will face renewed scrutiny, with pressure to align more closely with US offerings, potentially undermining European alternatives. The CNLL and others will likely reiterate their opposition to this approach.
  • Trade Disputes and Tariffs: The possibility of renewed trade disputes and tariffs on technology products and services cannot be ruled out. This could impact the availability and cost of hardware and software components, potentially hindering the development of a European "Euro-Stack" and impacting European businesses reliant on global supply chains.
  • Weakening of Transatlantic Data Flows: The EU-US Data Privacy Framework, already on shaky ground, could be further jeopardized, potentially leading to a "Schrems III" scenario and disrupting data flows between Europe and the US. This will add further complexity to the compliance landscape for businesses operating in both regions. EUCLIDIA and other organizations advocating for data sovereignty will likely take a strong stance on this issue, pushing for stronger safeguards and potentially advocating for data localization requirements. The text "Europe’s Hidden Security Crisis: Data Vulnerabilities in European Defense" may be used as a reference on the risks related to data transfers.
  • Intensified Geopolitical Competition: The renewed "America First" approach will likely exacerbate the ongoing US-China tech rivalry. The EU will be forced to navigate this increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, seeking to maintain its own strategic autonomy while also engaging in international cooperation.

The CRA's Implementation: A Defining Moment for Open Source

The Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) will enter its implementation phase in 2025, presenting both opportunities and challenges for the Open Source ecosystem.

  • Impact on SMEs: APELL, CNLL, OSBA and other organizations will be closely monitoring the CRA's impact on European SMEs, advocating for proportionate regulations and support mechanisms to help smaller players comply with the new requirements.
  • The "Open Source Steward" Concept Takes Shape: The concept of the "Open Source Steward," introduced to address liability concerns, will be further defined and tested in practice. This will likely involve ongoing discussions between policymakers, legal experts, and the Open Source community. The upcoming guidance from the European Commission, due in 2025, will be crucial in shaping the practical application of this concept.
  • Focus on Security by Design: The CRA's emphasis on "security by design" and vulnerability disclosure will push Open Source projects to adopt more rigorous development practices.

The Polish Presidency: A Chance for Progress?

Poland's assumption of the EU Council Presidency in the first half of 2025 presents a potential opportunity to advance the digital sovereignty agenda. The country's strong focus on cybersecurity and its ambitious digital agenda could translate into concrete support for Open Source initiatives.

  • "Blueprint Cyber 2.0": Poland's aim to update the "Blueprint Cyber" framework for incident response could lead to greater recognition of Open Source's role in building resilient digital infrastructures. The ENISA (European Network and Information Security Agency) will likely play a key role in this process.
  • NIS2 and DORA Implementation: The implementation of NIS2 (Network and Information Security Directive) and DORA (Digital Operational Resilience Act) will be closely watched, with Open Source potentially playing a significant role in achieving compliance.
  • Focus on AI and Telecoms: Poland's interest in "AI factories" and the Digital Networks Act could create opportunities for Open Source AI projects and open networking solutions. The OSBA (Open Source Business Alliance) in Germany will likely follow these developments closely, given its focus on Open Source in telecommunications.

The "Euro-Stack": From Concept to Reality?

The "Euro-Stack" concept, championed by several organizations in Europe, will likely gain further traction in 2025 and become the focus of conversations in Brussels and European capitals. We can expect:

  • Concrete Pilot Projects: The launch of concrete pilot projects, potentially funded through Horizon Europe or the Digital Europe Programme, aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of a fully European, Open Source-based digital infrastructure. The Sovereign Cloud Stack (SCS) project could serve as a model for these initiatives.
  • Increased Collaboration: Greater collaboration between European cloud providers, Open Source projects, and research institutions, with organizations like EUCLIDIA playing a key role in fostering these partnerships.
  • Focus on Specific Use Cases: A shift from abstract discussions to concrete use cases, demonstrating the value proposition of the "Euro-Stack" in specific sectors, such as healthcare, public administration, and industry. The German ZenDiS (Centre for Digital Sovereignty of Public Administration) will likely play a crucial role in this, as well as providing templates and guidelines for other countries.

The Role of Civil Society and Advocacy

Organizations like APELL and EUCLIDIA will continue to play a crucial role in advocating for Open Source and digital sovereignty. We can expect:

  • Increased Engagement with Policymakers: These organizations will intensify their engagement with policymakers at both the national and European levels, pushing for policies that support the growth of a vibrant European Open Source ecosystem. The APELL 2024 conference in Berlin, and the publication of its "report", as well as the Open Source Experience event in Paris, provided platforms for this engagement.
  • Public Awareness Campaigns: Efforts to raise public awareness about the importance of digital sovereignty and the benefits of Open Source will likely increase, countering the marketing efforts of proprietary software vendors and the "Sovereignty Washing" tactics of the US tech giants, using partnerships, local subsidiaries, and strategic investments to present themselves as aligned with European values while still maintaining ultimate control over technology and data. The recent example of AWS launching a "European Sovereign Cloud" will likely be followed by similar initiatives from other US companies.
  • Collaboration and Coalition Building: We can expect to see greater collaboration between different Open Source organizations, as well as with other civil society groups concerned with digital rights, privacy, and security, to create a unified front. The UN's "Open Source for Good" initiative will likely gain more visibility.

Challenges and Uncertainties

Despite the positive momentum, significant challenges remain:

  • The "Colonized Mindset": Overcoming the deeply ingrained preference for US tech solutions within many European institutions and businesses will be a major hurdle. The continued dominance of US cloud providers, despite efforts like "cloud de confiance", highlights the difficulty of this task. The detailed analysis of the French government's failures in "Pourquoi la tech française va droit dans le mur (2ème partie)" will likely influence the debate.
  • Funding and Investment: Securing sufficient and sustained funding for Open Source projects and European tech SMEs remains a key challenge. The European Commission will need to demonstrate a clear commitment to supporting the Open Source ecosystem through its funding programs. A "European Sovereign Cloud Fund", as proposed by various organisations, might provide a solution.
  • Skills Gap: Addressing the skills gap through targeted training and education programs will be crucial for the successful adoption of Open Source technologies. The APELL 2024 conference highlighted the need to focus on both technical and business skills.
  • Geopolitical Tensions: The increasingly complex geopolitical context, particularly with the re-election of Trump, could lead to increased pressure on Europe to align with US tech policies, potentially undermining efforts towards digital sovereignty. Tariq Krim's comments highlight several aspects of this, while also expressing optimism regarding the new opportunities created by this context.

Conclusion

2025 promises to be a year of challenges, but also hopefully of opportunities, for Open Source and digital sovereignty in Europe. The CRA's implementation, the Polish EU Presidency, the evolving geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing debate around initiatives like "cloud de confiance" and Gaia-X predictable failure will all shape the trajectory of the European digital ecosystem.

The Open Source ecosystem, led by organizations like APELL, and the European Cloud sector, represented by EUCLIDIA, is poised to play a central role in advocating for a more open, resilient, and sovereign European digital future. The success of these efforts will depend on the ability of all stakeholders – policymakers, industry, researchers, and citizens – to work together, to embrace a long-term vision, and to translate principles into concrete actions. The coming year will be a critical test of Europe's commitment to building a digital future that reflects its values and safeguards its interests in an increasingly complex and interconnected world.

The choices made in 2025 will have a lasting impact on Europe's technological independence, economic competitiveness, and its place in the global digital order. It is a year for bold decisions, strategic investments, and a renewed commitment to the principles of openness, collaboration, and shared control that underpin the Open Source movement.